Wednesday, March 01, 2006

Rosencrantz & Guildenstern Are Dead

There are times when I think that the entire universe is against me.

I haven't been on the wrong side of a coin flip 176 times in a row yet. The past 5 days have felt close though.

Many situations in poker are like coin flips--- or close to it. Preflop, one of the best situations you can be in is a 80% favorite. Lose 5 of those in a row, and then maybe you start to get paranoid (and then go on to lose 10 out of the next 15 and you might have a little less hair than before). Combine that with losing 30 out of 40 situations where you were a 60% favorite, and losing 30 out of 35 situations where you had a 40% chance to win, and the simplest explanation ends up being that you are in some sort of gambler's hell.

It's either that, or the universe is against me.

It's difficult to quantify the amount of money that this bad luck streak has cost me, because these were 10-person tournaments. Oh-- I know how much I've lost, that's easy. But many of these "flips" meant the difference between certainly winning money and certainly losing money--- other "flips" were just the difference between probably winning money (or at least, having a better chance of winning money)and certainly losing money.

The crazy thing is that if I just count the times when I was in a certain to win/lose-money situation, and won the correct number of times, the past few days would have been very good, rather than horrible.

There's really nothing that I can do about it. I can't play better. I can't get myself into better situations.

It's not easy being a poker player. It is completely frustrating at times. People who don't do this for a living have no idea how psychologically difficult it can be.

At least February was a good month overall. And I am looking forward to the cruise, which is less than 2 weeks away.

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