Time to Change
do you remember that brady bunch episode where the bunch is in the recording studio and peter's voice changes and he sounds all awful and is really embarrassed, but the kids buck up and sing a song that capitalizes on peter's horribility?
the past few months, poker has been crappy for me. i've been making money, but not at the rate which i would like, and the frustration-factor has been so high that the game hasn't been fun to play. it all is rooted in some structure changes that PartyPoker made to their 1-table tournaments. i blame them, but the problem is also my fault for not being a very well-rounded poker player.
a little over 2 years ago, i started playing 1-table tournaments. the original idea was to get more "final table" experience, because i had been having some success in big multi-table tournaments, but not knowing exactly how to play when i got down to the last ten people or so. to invest so much time in a tournament and then blow it near the end, especially when the payout structures are so top-heavy (1st makes much more than 2nd, etc.), was silly in my opinion. the 1-table tournaments were a good way to practice.
except that the 1-table tournaments ended up being very profitable. and instead of just using them to practice, i started playing them exclusively. gradually moving up in limits, adding more tables that i would simutaneously play, and making more and more money/hr... it was easy money...
but now it's changed-- it's not easy or fun anymore for me, and after spending 2 years becoming an expert at this little niche of poker, i have to move on.
when i was living in vegas, i played a lot of no-limit cash games... it was mainly for the experience, and i wanted to augment my skills to become better at the 1-table tournaments. but from now on, that's what i'm going to play full-time. it's difficult to go from an expert at one thing to a rookie in another, but hopefully it'll work out and be for the best. i think that there is more potential there at least, and maybe i'll enjoy myself more as well.
a few weeks ago i was thinking about engineering again. i downloaded some fluid-flow software from a P2P network, opened it up, made sure that it was what i needed and that i could use it, and then i deleted it from my computer. i don't want to engineer now anymore than i did when i quit. there isn't any point in me wasting weeks or months of my time solving a problem that won't improve my life in any way.
instead, i've decided to redirect that "need for challenge" to a different task. i've decided to develop an automated trading system for the stock market. over the past week i've been mulling a few ideas over in my mind, and i have a fairly cohesive plan of how to analyze and backtest historical data from the stock market.
i'll be using some tools that i learned while i was an engineer. maybe the most useful thing that i ever learned was how to solve multi-dimensional problems with genetic algorithms, and i think that applying some cleverly thought-out genetic algorithms to stock market data will reveal profitable intraday trading strategies.
i'm also learning a new programming language, Python, specifically for this purpose.
it's not going to be easy, but i don't think that it'll be impossible either. an automated trading strategy doesn't have to be perfect-- it won't ever be perfect. it just needs to be right a few more times than wrong. in that sense poker and trading are very similar-- you take calculated risks and in the long run you have an positive expected return.
so i have a lot of things on my plate--- spanish, poker, a new programming language, and cracking the code that governs the stock market. a lot of changes, but all for the better hopefully.
oh, i'm also on a diet.
the past few months, poker has been crappy for me. i've been making money, but not at the rate which i would like, and the frustration-factor has been so high that the game hasn't been fun to play. it all is rooted in some structure changes that PartyPoker made to their 1-table tournaments. i blame them, but the problem is also my fault for not being a very well-rounded poker player.
a little over 2 years ago, i started playing 1-table tournaments. the original idea was to get more "final table" experience, because i had been having some success in big multi-table tournaments, but not knowing exactly how to play when i got down to the last ten people or so. to invest so much time in a tournament and then blow it near the end, especially when the payout structures are so top-heavy (1st makes much more than 2nd, etc.), was silly in my opinion. the 1-table tournaments were a good way to practice.
except that the 1-table tournaments ended up being very profitable. and instead of just using them to practice, i started playing them exclusively. gradually moving up in limits, adding more tables that i would simutaneously play, and making more and more money/hr... it was easy money...
but now it's changed-- it's not easy or fun anymore for me, and after spending 2 years becoming an expert at this little niche of poker, i have to move on.
when i was living in vegas, i played a lot of no-limit cash games... it was mainly for the experience, and i wanted to augment my skills to become better at the 1-table tournaments. but from now on, that's what i'm going to play full-time. it's difficult to go from an expert at one thing to a rookie in another, but hopefully it'll work out and be for the best. i think that there is more potential there at least, and maybe i'll enjoy myself more as well.
a few weeks ago i was thinking about engineering again. i downloaded some fluid-flow software from a P2P network, opened it up, made sure that it was what i needed and that i could use it, and then i deleted it from my computer. i don't want to engineer now anymore than i did when i quit. there isn't any point in me wasting weeks or months of my time solving a problem that won't improve my life in any way.
instead, i've decided to redirect that "need for challenge" to a different task. i've decided to develop an automated trading system for the stock market. over the past week i've been mulling a few ideas over in my mind, and i have a fairly cohesive plan of how to analyze and backtest historical data from the stock market.
i'll be using some tools that i learned while i was an engineer. maybe the most useful thing that i ever learned was how to solve multi-dimensional problems with genetic algorithms, and i think that applying some cleverly thought-out genetic algorithms to stock market data will reveal profitable intraday trading strategies.
i'm also learning a new programming language, Python, specifically for this purpose.
it's not going to be easy, but i don't think that it'll be impossible either. an automated trading strategy doesn't have to be perfect-- it won't ever be perfect. it just needs to be right a few more times than wrong. in that sense poker and trading are very similar-- you take calculated risks and in the long run you have an positive expected return.
so i have a lot of things on my plate--- spanish, poker, a new programming language, and cracking the code that governs the stock market. a lot of changes, but all for the better hopefully.
oh, i'm also on a diet.
2 Comments:
Dude, I have just one thing to say: Brown rice and tuna fish. Stir em together, eat em four times a day, have all the fruits and veggies you like. It friggin works, I'm telling you.
Also, when you get all the bugs worked out, I'll offer my services as a beta tester for your stock trading software. Just let me know.
Ace
Hey there,
are you getting into my market share now with your new idea?
Nik
Post a Comment
<< Home