Monday, June 19, 2006

big tourney day

today was a good day.

ever since getting back from the cruise in march, i've been trying to make sundays my “big tournament” days. PartyPoker, PokerStars, FullTilt, Ultimate Bet, and Paradise Poker all have high buy-in tournaments on sundays.

i've haven't been very good at actually playing EVERY sunday-- sometimes i have other things that i want to do, or i forget that it's sunday, or i wake up too late for the 4:30 EST start time of most of them (hey-- it's a freakin' day of rest!). but at least 3 or 4 sundays since march have been “big tourney” days, however-- without great results.

the problem is, these big tournaments are really difficult to win. the ones at PartyPoker and PokerStars regularly have 4000+ players. in order to make it into the money, you usually have to make it at least to the top 20%--- usually around 15%--- and then you basically only make your buy-in back.... the pay-outs are very top-heavy.

and big tournaments are heart-breaking. i've been playing really well, but you need a lot of luck to dodge all the crazy luck that some people have.

but today i played in three big tournaments-- the PokerStars $215 buy-in, the PartyPoker $215, and the Paradise $200. the Paradise Poker tournament is nicer i think, because there is never more than 800 people or so in it.

the PokerStars one was a disaster.... three hands into the tournament i lost 75% of my chips to a moron when i was an 80% favorite. the PartyPoker one i finished something like 620th out of around 4000 people, which paid $300 (but I only netted $300-$215 = $85)... a typical waste of time...

but I scored big in the Paradise tournament... 663 people entered, and I got second place--- winning me more in a single tournament than I had ever won before.... yea!

i'm exhausted though.... 8 ½ hours of playing... high stress decisions... my neck and shoulders feel like i've been doing hard labor.

but 2nd place is pretty good, and it makes up for some fairly blah months.

******

what i've really been thinking about the past few weeks is programming. i've learned a little so far, and made my first program with a Graphical User Interface the other day. i've been exploring some of the open-source scientific and statistical packages that are available for Python, and gradually figuring out what i will be able to use and what i will have to write myself...

i'm excited about the possibilities for an automatic trading algorithm. the more that i dig into it though, the more i realize how difficult it will be to actually succeed.

i'm feeling a little like Max Cohen in the movie PI... like maybe i'm starting down a path to madness, slowly being consumed by this problem... i bought a hard-cover notebook the other day, like a lab notebook, and am slowly filling it with decision-tree diagrams and if-then statements and unanswered questions.

Max Cohen:
"Restate my assumptions:
One, Mathematics is the language of nature.
Two, Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers.
Three: If you graph the numbers of any system, patterns emerge.

Therefore, there are patterns everywhere in nature.

Evidence: The cycling of disease epidemics;the wax and wane of caribou populations; sun spot cycles; the rise and fall of the Nile. So, what about the stock market? The universe of numbers that represents the global economy. Millions of hands at work, billions of minds. A vast network, screaming with life. An organism. A natural organism. My hypothesis: Within the stock market, there is a pattern as well...Right in front of me...hiding behind the numbers. Always has been."


so... i have to be like "whatever"... maybe i come up with something, maybe i don't... but i have to find some way of toning down my excitement while still maintaining some discipline to work on the problem.

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